Nobuyuki Saji Mitsubishi UFJ
second team Takahide Kiuchi Nomura
third team Mikihiro Matsuoka Deutsche
Finishing in first place for a ninth straight year is Mitsubishi UFJ economist Nobuyuki Saji, 51, who impresses clients with his ability to combine “macroeconomic analysis and microeconomic information,” as one investor puts it. In November 2008, after the Bank of Japan cut its benchmark overnight lending rate from 0.5 percent to 0.3 percent, Saji said the central bank would have to take more aggressive steps to increase liquidity. Seven weeks later the bank reduced the rate again, to 0.1 percent, and had kept it there ever since, through February.
Nomura’s Takahide Kiuchi, who captures second place for a fourth straight year, is “one of the best economists in Japan,” according to one backer. In August, after the Democratic Party of Japan swept into power, Kiuchi predicted that the central bank would continue to ease its monetary policy in an attempt to stimulate growth and stem deflation. He was right. In December the bank introduced a lending operation through which financial institutions could access low-interest loans, and last month announced that it would double the amount of money available for those loans, to ¥20 trillion ($221 billion).
In third place for a fourth year running is Deutsche’s Mikihiro Matsuoka, hailed by one fund manager for his “detailed analysis of the economic numbers and their implications, rather than just plain reporting.” In February 2009, Matsuoka accurately predicted that the government’s stimulus program would not lead to sustained economic recovery; therefore, nominal long-term interest rates would remain low.
