The buy side says: “If you followed his advice, you would have made a fortune.”
In first place for a third straight year — and for the fifth time in six years — is François Trahan, 41, who left ISI Group to join forces in February with Edward Wolfe (who is ranked second in Airfreight & Surface Transportation). The 41-year-old Wolfe Trahan & Co. (formerly Wolfe Research) strategist, who also captures second-place honors in Quantitative Research, warned clients in early May that the market had peaked for the year, and he urged them to minimize their exposure to stocks, especially financial and technology shares, and seek safety in bonds. His reasons: dwindling federal stimulus money and an expected turning point in the leading economic indicators. He was right. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index, which had swelled 4.6 percent year-to-date before his warning, fell 10 percent through August, with its financial and tech sectors plunging 19.6 and 13.2 percent, respectively. “François helped us avoid some of the worst of the sell-off,” observes one investor.
