second team Nancy Lazar ISI
third team Maury Harris UBS
Ed Hyman of ISI Group, the grand champion of the All-America Research Team, extends his reign to 30 consecutive years. Clients say Hyman, 64, is “the original high-frequency deliverer of information” and provides “a transparent approach to modeling that is second to none.” The economist is also willing to “acknowledge when he has been early or wrong,” explains one portfolio manager. In that vein, Hyman admits he was too optimistic in October 2008 when he said real gross domestic product growth would contract by only 1 percent in the first quarter of 2009, for a relatively mild recession. By late January he lowered his estimate significantly, to 5 percent. The final number on first-quarter real GDP was even worse — a 6.4 percent contraction, according to government figures.
Hyman’s ISI colleague Nancy Lazar rises one rung to second place. “She is an invaluable asset,” says one buy-side backer. In October 2008, Lazar told investors the personal savings rate in the U.S., then at just above 2 percent, “will increase significantly,” to 5.2 percent by the first quarter. Close. The savings rate jumped to 3.7 percent in the first quarter and topped 5 percent in the first month of the second quarter.
Unranked last year, Maury Harris captures third place. “He is the best at making sense of how the pieces of the domestic economy fit together and interact,” says one satisfied booster. In March the UBS economist predicted that the then-rising savings rate would stabilize and not impede consumer spending as the economy recovered. The savings rate slipped to 4.5 percent in June and 4.2 percent in July.
Click here to see the All-America Research Team rankings.
