Fixed-Income Strategy
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Fixed-Income Strategy

Alexei Moisseev of Renaissance Capital takes the top prize for a third straight year in the 2009 All-Russia Research Team Rankings.

Alexei Moisseev Renaissance

second team Alexander Kudrin Troika

third team Nikolay Podguzov Renaissance

Alexei Moisseev of Renaissance Capital takes the top prize for a third straight year. In November Moisseev, 36, recommended shorting the ruble versus the euro, when the Russian currency was trading at 34.50 to its European counterpart, owing to rising consumer spending and investment. The ruble plunged to 47.19 per euro by early February, before rallying slightly to 43.97 by the end of April. In January Moisseev predicted the ruble would hit bottom relative to the dollar "within the next month," slumping to 37. In mid-February the ruble sank to 36.46 before rebounding to 33.27 by the end of April. "His insights help us make the right FX decisions," cheers a buy-side loyalist. Leaping from runner-up to second place is Alexander Kudrin , who "always has good ideas," according to one investor. In December the Troika Dialog strategist told clients that panic, not fundamentals, had pushed the yield on Russia’s benchmark 30-year Eurobonds to 850 basis points over the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasuries. He predicted the spread would narrow dramatically in the first half of 2009, when disaffected equity investors turned to bonds. By April’s end the spread had tightened to 500 basis points. RenCap’s Nikolay Podguzov , who repeats in third place, also impressed clients with a bullish view of Russian Eurobonds in December, especially those issued by steelmakers. He recommended TMK’s 2009 notes, with a yield of 2,245 basis points over ten-year U.S. Treasuries, and Severstal’s 2013 notes, with a yield of 3,300 basis points. By the end of April, the spreads had narrowed to 1,056 and 1,650 basis points, respectively. "His recommendations work well," affirms one booster.

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All-Russia Research Team Rankings

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