2016 All-Japan Research Team: Retailing, No. 1: Toshio Takahashi
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2016 All-Japan Research Team: Retailing, No. 1: Toshio Takahashi

For a second consecutive year, Mizuho Securities Group’s Toshio Takahashi is the No. 1 analyst covering Japan’s retailers.

< The 2016 All-Japan Research Team

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Toshio Takahashi

Mizuho Securities Group

First-Place Appearances: 2


Total Appearances: 12


Analyst Debut: 2002


For a second consecutive year, Mizuho Securities Group’s Toshio Takahashi is the No. 1 analyst covering Japan’s retailers. “He’s always on top of business trends,” remarks one admirer. Another investors hails his timely information updates. Takahashi, 44, reports on 18 companies himself and contributes to team-based tracking of 33 names. One of his top picks for more than a year has been Tokyo-based household and consumer goods retailer Ryohin Keikaku Co. Citing the potential in the company’s global supply chain management system and expansion of its Asia business, he began urging investors to buy the shares in December 2014 and reiterated that position the following April. The stock climbed 45 percent during that period, to ¥19,840, outperforming its domestic peers by 15.6 percentage points. As of the middle of last month, it was trading at ¥22,330, up 63.2 percent over the life of the call, compared with a 6.2 percent decline for the sector. Looking ahead, the researcher identifies several factors that he expects to influence domestic retailers’ performance. “In our view the external environment will change even more rapidly in 2016 than in 2015,” he says. “We are thinking of changes like a plateauing of the rise in sale prices, changes in consumer behavior sparked by the increased adoption of smartphones and the growth of e-commerce, and the slowdown in growth in inbound tourist demand. We also expect the latter half of the year will likely see behavior influenced by the next consumption tax hike — from 8 percent to 10 percent — scheduled for April 2017. At the same time, we think structural changes in the industry will also gather pace, including an easing of competition due to increased store closures and more M&A activity.” Given this outlook, for the near term Takahashi is highlighting the drugstore and convenience store subsectors, where he expects earnings to be firm. Specifically, in the former group he likes Tokyo’s Sundrug Co. and Tsuruha Holdings Co. of Hokkaido. In the latter he deems Tokyo-headquartered Lawson and Seven & i Holdings Co. potential standouts.



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