Economics & Strategy: Sovereign Debt – Second
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Economics & Strategy: Sovereign Debt – Second

Deutsche Bank Securities repeats in the No. 2 spot in 2012.

Drausio Giacomelli, Hongtao Jiang & team Deutsche Bank Securities

Deutsche Bank Securities repeats in the No. 2 spot. Directed by Drausio Giacomelli and Hongtao Jiang in New York, the trio wins praise for “in-depth analysis — always with the right mix of tactical, theoretical and, of course, macro-fundamental views,” according to one fund manager. The three broke with the consensus in February and told money managers to short Argentina’s dollar-denominated, gross-domestic-product-linked warrants, at $14.75, in expectation of slowing economic growth. In April, with the warrants down 27.1 percent, to $10.75, the strategists said it was time to head for the exits. The warrants had slipped a bit further, to $10, by mid-July. The team’s outlook for the remainder of 2012 is mixed. “On the one hand, there is considerable uncertainty in the global risk environment, and growth dynamics do not look favorable,” Jiang says. “On the other hand, we believe the technical conditions will continue to be very strong on the back of strong inflows fueled by historically low interest rates, which will keep the market well supported. We recommend investors stay fully invested in high-grade credits while selectively and opportunistically taking some high-yield risk.” — Thomas W. Johnson

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