2015 All-Latin America Research Team: Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals, No. 1: Paula Kovarsky & team
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2015 All-Latin America Research Team: Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals, No. 1: Paula Kovarsky & team


< The 2015 Latin America Research Team

Paula Kovarsky & teamItaú BBAFirst-Place Appearances: 2

Total Appearances: 7

Team Debut: 2009For a second consecutive year, Paula Kovarsky guides her Itaú BBA crews to first place on this roster and to a runner-up position on the Electric & Other Utilities lineup. The three analysts tracking 14 names in this space win praise for delivering a full spectrum of quality service. “They are timely in their coverage of key events, insightful in the implications analyses and responsive to follow-up questions,” declares one money manager. Much of the group’s focus over the past year has been on Brazil’s Petróleo Brasileiro, or Petrobras, the state-controlled integrated energy giant ensnared in an ongoing corruption scandal known as Lava Jato, or Car Wash. Kovarsky and her cohorts produced multiple reports on several scenarios, including impacts from the 2014 presidential and general elections in Brazil and the kickback investigations. “Last year was hugely impacted by elections in Brazil, and this explains the huge volatility on Petrobras in particular,” says the 41-year-old analyst. “In March we warned the market about an alternative solution to the ‘consensus capital increase view,’ the likelihood of audited financials being issued on time and the possibility of larger [capital expenditure] cuts.” Specifically, she adds, “we calculated $135 billion for five years and were the first to call for 2.8 [million barrels per day] of domestic oil production by 2020, advising the market to reduce their shorts [or] underweights on the name.” Itaú’s team is also sticking with its strong bet on the ability of Brazil’s Ultrapar Participações to survive turbulent waters, based on the fuel distributor’s “strong management and corporate governance, predictability and resilience,” explains Kovarsky, who has moved on from sell-side research. She left Itaú to become investor relations director for Brazilian agricultural conglomerate Cosan in June.

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