2015 All-Latin America Research Team: Retailing, No. 2: Antonio González, Tobias Stingelin & team
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2015 All-Latin America Research Team: Retailing, No. 2: Antonio González, Tobias Stingelin & team


< The 2015 Latin America Research Team



Antonio González, Tobias Stingelin & teamCredit SuisseFirst-place appearances: 1

Total appearances: 11

Team debut: 1993Credit Suisse’s Latin America retailing analysts “are very focused on generating new ideas and creating added value for their clients,” observes one investor. “They don’t fear having controversial points of view and are ready to defend them.” Antonio González in Mexico City and São Paulo–headquartered Tobias Stingelin head up the coverage, overseeing a three-strong squad that advances to third place after six straight runner-up appearances — and posts the firm’s strongest showing since 2002. The pair also guides a crew that earns a runner-up spot on the Food & Beverages lineup. González, 31, signed on with Credit Suisse in February 2007, armed with a bachelor’s degree in economics from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México. He made his first appearance on this lineup in 2013, as co-leader with Gustavo Wigman, who decamped for Brazilian asset manager Tarpon Investimentos. Stingelin, 42, arrived at the firm that August, joining from Santander, whose group he led to runner-up positions on this roster in 2012 and 2013. He previously worked as an analyst on both the sell and buy sides, including stints at J.P. Morgan and 3G Capital, and served as an investor relations manager at Brazilian brewer Cia. de Bebidas das Américas. Stingelin graduated with a BA in business administration from the Fundação Getúlio Vargas in São Paulo. He focuses on Brazilian names, while González and one other analyst tend to non-Brazilian companies. Together they monitor 32 stocks. “We are positive on the consumer space in Mexico and cautious elsewhere in the region,” reports González. “Mexico has reached an inflection point in consumer dynamics after a couple of years of very weak growth. The fiscal reform implemented in 2014 in Mexico significantly impacted disposable income — and across the consumer subsegments, you could see companies hurting because of that.” The researchers are more cautious on Chile and Colombia, believing each has yet to experience the full impact to disposable incomes from policy changes passed more recently than those in Mexico. Regarding Brazil, “we are currently bearish on the consumer sector as the economy is clearly in the midst of a recession, and it will take some time for the outlook to improve. Unemployment rates are starting to rise fast, and inflation has been approaching 9 percent,” says Stingelin. “Moreover, consumer confidence is very low, and credit growth has been anemic. The economy has not yet reached bottom, and the outlook will continue to negatively impact demand.”

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