2015 All-Latin America Research Team: Economics, No. 2: Luis Arcentales, Arthur Carvalho Filho & team
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2015 All-Latin America Research Team: Economics, No. 2: Luis Arcentales, Arthur Carvalho Filho & team


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Luis Arcentales, Arthur Carvalho Filho & teamMorgan StanleyFirst-Place Appearances: 11

Total Appearances: 21

Team Debut: 1994Morgan Stanley’s crew falls from first place to second, after having racked up 11 top appearances since 2002 under the direction of Gray Newman, who retired last May. The team’s new leaders are Luis Arcentales in New York and São Paulo–based Arthur Carvalho Filho. “The No. 1 merit of Luis and Arthur’s work is their [focusing] on long-term structural issues for each country and linking them to the relevant global events,” observes one fund manager. As many Latin American countries struggle with sluggish growth and weaker currencies, as well as the specter of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s raising interest rates, the “principal challenge is to execute much-needed structural reforms that will boost productivity and sustain growth models that are less dependent on commodities,” says Carvalho, 34. The researchers are monitoring Brazil closely, adds Arcentales, advising that “we are definitely constructive, as its policy is moving in the right direction, however painful the current adjustment — the fiscal, quasifiscal and monetary tightening — is turning out to be.” The group also singles out Chile as “the most well positioned in the region to handle the post-Fed liftoff environment,” the 38-year-old co-captain notes, since that economy shows signs of being on the mend. Arcentales worked as an equity strategist at Pennsylvania’s McGlinn Capital Management before signing on with Morgan Stanley in September 2001. He holds two degrees from Lehigh University in Pennsylvania, a bachelor’s in industrial engineering and a master’s in economics. Carvalho earned two economics degrees, a BS from the Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro and an MSc from the London School of Economics and Political Science. He started at the firm in January 2011 after serving as the chief economist at Brazilian brokerage Ativa Corretora.

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