The 2014 All-Japan Research Team: Economics, No. 2: Tomochika Kitaoka
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The 2014 All-Japan Research Team: Economics, No. 2: Tomochika Kitaoka

Mizuho Securities Group’s Tomochika Kitaoka debuted on this roster as a runner-up last year and leaps all the way to No. 2 this year.

< The 2014 All-Japan Research Team

Tomochika Kitaoka & team Mizuho Securities Group First-place appearances: 0


Total appearances: 2


Team debut: 2013 Mizuho Securities Group’s Tomochika Kitaoka debuted on this roster as a runner-up last year and leaps all the way to No. 2 this year. Investors laud the analyst for “providing macro and market analysis in a timely manner,” as one money manager puts it. Kitaoka has a sanguine view of the Japanese economy’s prospects, forecasting that real gross domestic product will increase by 1.8 percent this year, up from 1.6 percent in 2013. A sales tax hike from 5 percent to 8 percent on April 1 will lead to up-and-down economic growth in the near term, he believes. But sustainable growth is likely well before year’s end, Kitaoka believes, thanks to household income growth that he projects will be sufficiently robust to catch up with the consumer price index and offset any negative effects of the higher consumption tax. In the corporate sector, citing tax incentives and a run of historically high profits, the economist forecasts that small and medium enterprises as well as companies in nonmanufacturing sectors will boost their domestic capital expenditures. Further, he sees exports rebounding modestly, on the back of improvements in the U.S. and other advanced economies together with forward guidance from the Bank of Japan that indicates more monetary and fiscal support. Strong performance in this segment of the market is key, Kitaoka advises, because “profit recovery is supported by the weak yen — and if companies increase capex and salaries, then the good cycle will continue.” Potential risks to this scenario, however, include an early central bank change of course toward tightening and a softer-than-expected turnaround in the global economy, he cautions.



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