The 2014 All-Japan Research Team: Economics, No. 3: Junichi Makino
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The 2014 All-Japan Research Team: Economics, No. 3: Junichi Makino

< The 2014 All-Japan Research Team Junichi Makino SMBC Nikko Securities First-place appearances: 0

Total appearances: 2

Analyst debut: 2013 Rising from runner-up to capture third place is SMBC Nikko Securities economist Junichi Makino, whose “ability to explain both the global markets and macroeconomic theory” garners particular praise from one investor. Makino forecasts that Japan’s economy will recover in the second half of this year, after a near-term slowdown brought on by a crimp in demand resulting from the April 1 sales tax increase to 8 percent from 5 percent. His optimism is informed by several factors, such as an improving U.S. economy that will continue to bolster exports and weaken the yen, as well as further monetary easing from the Bank of Japan and more fiscal stimulus from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government. An additional driver, Makino reports, is the country’s labor shortage, which will lead to wage increases and encourage individual consumption. Overall, the analyst concludes, the so-called Abenomics program could contribute an estimated total of some ¥60 trillion ($585.6 billion) to the nation’s gross domestic product over 15 years. That outcome depends on whether the policies are “implemented in full, which would boost listed companies’ net profits by ¥3.9 trillion,” he says, “and share prices could rise by a similar degree.” Makino counsels, however, that “the possibility is uncertain at present, so it is hard to evaluate now — and the market has not priced it in.”

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