The 2014 All-Asia Research Team: Currency & Rates Strategy, No. 3: Sameer Goel & team
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The 2014 All-Asia Research Team: Currency & Rates Strategy, No. 3: Sameer Goel & team

Sameer Goel & team Deutsche Bank First-place appearances: 1

Total appearances: 3

Team debut: 2012 Down one spot to No. 3 is Deutsche Bank’s six-member squad under the direction of Sameer Goel. Even so, the Singapore-based strategists maintain a loyal investor base. “Their work is in-depth and detailed, with plenty of good insights,” one advocate declares. “They do a very good job of tying together data to develop a big-picture narrative.” For his part, Goel reckons that although global factors continue to be relevant to currency price movements, local themes will have an increasingly important impact on Asian currencies and interest rate markets this year and “create more opportunities to trade divergence,” he says. As a result, “there will be more opportunities to exploit differential moves in currencies and interest rates between various economies in the region.” Against this backdrop, Goel reports, the analysts recommend as their “favorite medium-term play” shorting the Singapore dollar as the U.S. dollar strengthens, “markets eventually challenge the forward guidance of the U.S. Federal Reserve” and interest rates rise. In addition, as inflation “comes back on to the radar screen,” he says, they expect Asian central banks to be reluctant to pursue tightening policies ahead of the Fed, to “steepen the regional interest rate curves.” In anticipation, the researchers recommend that clients pursue trades that take advantage of falling short-term and rising back-end interest rates in Malaysia and South Korea.

See also Sameer Goel's profile in the 2013 All-Asia Research Team and the 2012 All-Asia Research Team.

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