The 2013 All-China Research Team: Economics, Second: Wensheng Peng

Leaping from runner-up to No. 2, Wensheng Peng of China International Capital Corp. has a “deep understanding of China’s economy and politics,” in the words of one money manager, who also praises the economist for producing “insightful” research reports. Beijing-based Peng forecasts that real gross domestic growth will stabilize at about 7.5 percent over the next two to three quarters, after a third-quarter rebound to 7.8 percent. “The synchronized recovery in the major developed economies should support China’s exports, which face the headwind of the negative effect of a large appreciation of the effective exchange rate in the past two years,” he asserts. Over the next few months, Peng says, he will be closely monitoring consumer price inflation and property prices. CPI has edged up of late — rising to 3.1 percent in September and to 3.2 percent in October, on a year-on-year basis — and property prices have recorded large increases in the country’s top cities this year. Although generally positive on the prospects for near-term economic expansion, Peng cautions that “structural problems remain the key constraining force on medium-term growth” and that the uncertain timing and pace of the unwinding of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s quantitative-easing program could lead to “high volatility” in the global financial markets. — Carolyn Koo