Economics & Strategy — Currency & Foreign Exchange: Third
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Economics & Strategy — Currency & Foreign Exchange: Third

J.P. Morgan’s Tohru Sasaki claims third place in this new sector.

Tohru Sasaki

J.P. Morgan

J.P. Morgan’s Tohru Sasaki claims third place in this new sector. “The global economy will continue to exhibit relatively strong growth, and global investors are likely to maintain a constructive view on risky assets,” he predicts. “Under such an environment the yen tends to become weak as a funding currency.” Consequently, investors should consider a long dollar-yen strategy, he advises, especially later this year when the market starts pricing in the anticipated end of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s quantitative easing. Sasaki predicts the dollar could rally to ¥100 early next year but doesn’t believe the trend will last over the long term. “I don’t think Japan will achieve 2 percent inflation, even though the Bank of Japan now has this level as its inflation target. Japan’s inflation rate will continue to be below that of the U.S., which means that the fair value of dollar-yen will simply continue declining gradually.” Sasaki “is good at explaining the outlook of the market with very detailed and broad charts,” observes one buy-side enthusiast. “I appreciate his research ideas and their implications.” — Thomas W. Johnson


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