Economics & Strategy – Economics: Second
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Economics & Strategy – Economics: Second

UBS slips from first place to second, but the five-member crew led by Reinhard Cluse continues to win praise for “unbiased and detailed research,” as one money manager puts it.

Reinhard Cluse

& team

UBS

UBS slips from first place to second, but the five-member crew led by Reinhard Cluse continues to win praise for “unbiased and detailed research,” as one money manager puts it. The economists, who work out of South Africa and the U.K., believe the biggest issue facing emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa is the pace of the recovery in Western Europe, given the regions’ close financial and trade links. An expectedly sluggish or uneven rebound in the euro zone will “slow the pace of growth in emerging EMEA,” Cluse says. Even so, “growth in EMEA should remain well above that of Western Europe,” he adds, because economic fundamentals are generally better in these emerging markets. They anticipate especially robust advances in Nigerian and Turkish equities. Meanwhile, fixed-income investors should be prepared for such markets as Hungary, Poland, South Africa and Turkey — which have benefited from substantial inflows’ driving yields to record lows — to face “adjustment challenges once global monetary conditions normalize and fixed-income flows reverse,” he contends. — Carolyn Koo


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