Economics & Strategy – Fixed-Income Strategy: First Alexander Kudrin
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Economics & Strategy – Fixed-Income Strategy: First Alexander Kudrin

Alexander Kudrin debuted on the inaugural All-Russia Research Team


Alexander Kudrin

Sberbank CIB

"He provides excellent insights into government bonds as well as timely updates on policy issues."

Alexander Kudrin debuted on the inaugural All-Russia Research Team, in 2004, at No. 3 in External (Foreign Currency–Denominated) Debt and as a runner-up in Internal (Ruble-Denominated) Debt, and he is one of only three analysts to have made the team every year. (His Sberbank CIB colleague Evgeny Gavrilenkov, No. 1 in Economics, and Renaissance Capital’s Alexander Kazbegi, a runner-up in Telecommunications, are the others.) Moreover, Kudrin has amassed more appearances on the team than any other currently ranked analyst — 13 — and this year lands in the winner’s circle for the first time, having spent the past four years in second place. “His long experience covering the currency and bond markets informs his research and makes his reports essential reading for fixed-income investors,” declares one client. Adds another, “His global outlook is very helpful.” In February, Belgium’s Euroclear began providing posttrading services for Obligatsyi Federal’novo Zaima, or ruble-denominated sovereign Russian bonds; the following month, Luxembourg’s Clearstream Banking introduced comparable services. “The share of international investors started to grow even in 2012, in anticipation of the opening of access to the local bond market for Euroclear and Clearstream,” recalls Kudrin, 38. “The latter is definitely helping Russian authorities to borrow money at lower interest rates.” As a result, the Finance Ministry is likely to extend the yield curve and place 20-year or even longer OFZs this year, he predicts. If that happens, then investors should take advantage. “Taking into account the high probability of the start of an easing cycle in Russia, we see a good potential for yield compression,” the strategist says. “Hence we recommend that investors build positions in the long-term OFZs.” Kudrin, who earned bachelor’s and master’s degrees in mathematics at Lomonosov Moscow State University, worked at several commercial banks before joining Troika Dialog in 2002; Sberbank acquired Troika last year. — Thomas W. Johnson

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